Systems are being designed, developed and procured separately and then used together in a System-of-Systems (SoS). The complexity, interconnectedness, and asynchronous evolution of SoS are not well handled by traditional systems engineering processes. Additionally, there is no well-established or formalized SoS Engineering (SoSE) methodology to supplement the current practice. The bounded uncertainty present in monolithic systems design can be sufficiently managed with safety factors derived from probabilistic analysis. However, the amplified uncertainty in the requirements and operational environment for a System-of-Systems necessitates a new uncertainty management approach.

The research presented in this dissertation responds to SoS uncertainty by establishing an integrated SoSE methodology which combines an intuitive embedded Real Options valuation approach with a portfolio optimization-based selection technique for flexible system design. Coupled with a Design Structure Matrix (DSM) process for real option identification, an end-to-end flexibility framework is developed and analyzed for real world system design implementation. This research can serve as the foundation for an integrated and disciplined Flexibility-Based Design Optimization (FBDO) process that maximizes the lifecycle value of a system, utilized in conjunction with other multi-disciplinary optimization processes for engineering system design.

The flexibility framework developed in this dissertation is analyzed for its applicability to real world system architecture design problems with subsequent recommendations for implementation and project specific data collection. Flexibility metrics are adapted and proposed for incorporation into a Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration (MATE) process to analyze alternative architectures and discover the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. It is the contention of the research that the proposed integrated framework combined with a Real Options-based flexibility valuation method can help improve the system engineer's ability to design and justify more flexible system architectures leading to improved mission and program performance.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This study is supported by funds from the National Science Foundation through the Vanderbilt University IGERT program on Risk and Reliability Engineering and SMART fellowship from DOD.